Statistical Success Yes - But Long Term Measurements are Tougher

The advent of the internet and internet advertising seemed to push a move towards measuring direct results.  Spend $1000 on ads and see if it yields $1000 in results.    Statistically experiment with small tests to see if it pays more to advertise with this catch phrase or that, with green or blue, in the morning or night etc.

I am a big believer in split run testing.  Try multiple experiments to see what works best.  Test on small samples before spending money on larger ones.

Measure everything to figure out the repeatable system that yields success.

This same measurement and documentation is what Michael Gerber pushes in his classic book series E-Myth.  He proposes that all businesses should McDonaldcize themselves.  Have detailed process manuals so anyone can do the job.  And work continually on figuring out how to make the process better.  He advocates that the entrepreneur should work ON the business - not IN the business.

I have been doing some Growth Coaching with some medium sized companies.  I have been promoting that for those who are about to hire a sales force.  Figure out a model and repeat it.  Most of them already use that for their internet marketing so it is surprising that they would find it new to do this in growing a sales team.

Formulas work.

And that could be the end of the story but it is not.  The problem with many long-term challenges are the outcomes do not happen fast enough to know exactly what works and what does not.  This is where entrepreneurial intuition comes in.  We never really know what will work but we have to choose intuitively to do them.



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I read there may be a chocolate shortage.  Apparently we may be hitting peak chocolate - the point where demand outstrips supply.  For some, I am sure that crisis is more important than peak oil even.

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People have a very narrow "comfort range".  We artificially extend that with heat, air conditioners and various clothing.   We also seem to "complain" about it which solves nothing.

I actually think the current touch of snow is gorgeous.

Efficiency vs Health

I have to admit to being a bit of a Fitbit addict.  Fitbit tracks steps and it has a social media component that allows people I am "connected" to see how many steps I do and I can see what they do.  And my kids and brothers all have them.  Not that I am competitive at all but Lyle particularly pushes me a bit since I do not want him to have more steps than I do.

So how does this relate to efficiency which is really the theme of this blog?  For perfect efficiency, I should set my life up to take less steps.  I should have all my files at my desk and everything I need should be in reach.  But to get more steps, it is best to have to go to the basement to file things and get up to get things.  I find the steps I get for just doing "normal" stuff as opposed to "working out" are fairly easy.  So building a life with "fairly easy" built in seems logical.

Or a more blatant example.  I could drive my car to a meeting or walk.  Walking might take 15 minutes longer so is less efficient.  And the same is true of automation and hiring things done (EG - mowing the grass or manually emptying the dehumidifier rather than piping it direct to the drain)

So I am conflicted since I am an efficiency and a health person.  Which do I choose.

So... moving the file cabinet to the basement...furthest from my desk I can get it.

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Speaking of health, I always thought it was more fiscally prudent to own a car rather than lease it.  But recent research links car ownership with poor health.

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By the way, in case you have not seen this yet, have a look at the blog post put out by Hootsuite when they launched the controlled BETA trials.

 http://blog.hootsuite.com/new-hootsuite-feature-content-suggestion/

Content curation and moderation is one of the next waves that will automate.  It has been going on for years (we let the editors choose what they think is important).  Soon, machines will be assisting in this task.

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One of my friends owns a multihundred million dollar company that sells hardwood.  I needed some hardwood flooring so bought it from him.

He was teasing that his margins were down this month because of the order he sold to me to which I replied "if you think your margins are bad this month, next month it will be your bad debts you have to worry about."

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Spam takes time but not as much as it seems.  I can log in and see 100 emails waiting but if they are all spam, that is about a minute to deal with them.  Now if I have to act on them, it can be a couple of hours.

That said, I do think the new Canadian Spam law might help reduce the number of unwanted emails.  Of course half my business interests are in the US and it will not help those.

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And my son who works selling wind turbines at Siemens thought it was only fair if I put pictures of my other kids children on my blog I should include his.

Article Clipping at its Best

My mother is an article clipper.  When I stop by, she often has articles she clipped from a newspaper or magazine for me.  And she does this for everyone else in her life.

I realize I have become the same way.  The difference is most of what I read is online so I clip URLs and email them to people that I think might be interested in an article.  And many of the articles I email were emailed to me - so I am just passing them on.

She clipped an article/book report that combined a review on 2 books - The Organized Mind - Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Daniel Levin and The End of Absence: Reclaiming What We've Lost in the World of Constant Connections by Michael Harris.

"In 2011, Americans (and I assume Canadians) took in 5 times as much information as they did in 1986."

As the titles suggest, information and connectivity are a problem and we need strategies to cope.  I know this first hand.  When I was in "CEO mode", I was fast and responsive.  Lately I have noticed I am less so.  Thinking I can use some of the strategies suggested in these books.  More for my reading list.

Silence can be empowering.

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Some interesting tidbits:

CEO's who run marathons are better CEO's.  This seems intuitive in the discipline needed to run a marathon.  Good CEO's are goal driven and a marathon is often a goal.  I also know it requires a high level of fitness to lead an executive life.  Where it is counter intuitive is real marathon training takes a lot of time.  It would be tough to properly train in even 6-7 hours per week.  Marathons are beyond fitness (I say this - yet I have run 6 of them).

I like the Goldman Sachs article on the internet of things.  I am taken back to my early days in business when we sold a lot of analogue to digital boards (well a lot relative to being a small company).  Those are the basis of most of the internet of things - they allow sensors to be read (temperature, pressure, etc.)

Growing Ice Cream

From an email exchange with a friend on what makes successful entrepreneurs:

listen - filter - learn - lead

Not blind obedience.

Work ethic - time management - energy - passion.

And the appropriate mix of dreams and reality, focus and trying different things.

Statistical experimentation.

Learning is the big one.

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I thought this simple article on 5 things to do before bed to jump start your day was good.

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And for those who thought they were too old to start a venture.

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And always thinking of Venture Returns.

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I was speaking with my grandson, Josh while we were eating dinner:

Josh:  Grandpa - do you like zucchini?

Me: Of course - it is great.

Josh while squeezing the zucchini from his plate in his hand: you can have mine

And later we were talking about my garden, planting seeds, harvesting etc:

Me:  I grow zucchini, lettuce, beets, beans and lots of herbs in my garden.  Are you going to have a garden when you grow up?

Josh:  Yes

Me: What are you going to grow?

Josh:  Ice Cream

No Substitute for Time in - But Perfect Time in

I love the early mornings.  So many things I love to do in these hours.  Cannot say I am a great fan of the darkness at 6 AM now though.

One of my favourite thought leaders and authors, Malcolm Gladwell,  studied what made people experts in their field.   Through his studies, he found that people who put more time in became more proficient and more expert.  His magic number was 10,000 hours makes a person expert.  Want to become a piano master?  Practice for 10,000 hours.  Want to become a great artist? Practice for 10,000 hours.

I took karate for about a decade.  My karate instructor said "perfect practice makes perfect - practice alone does not".  There is validity in that - spending the time practicing wrong just makes you perfect at doing things wrong.

I also know this from playing internet chess mindlessly.  I can put the hours in but get no better.  To improve requires focus, study and perfect practice.

I know there is no substitute for time in.  I have an organic vegetable garden.  If I spend time, it has few weeds and few pests.  Interestingly, in this case, mindless puttering gets the job done - no perfection required.

But it is not all about time - it is about energy.  I know when I am high energy (like early mornings), I have the focus to do "perfect".  When I am tired, I tend to do mindless.  So from an efficiency view - anything I can do to increase the amount of energy or high energy hours, the more effective I will be.  And if I spend my high energy hours on high perfection task, I will accomplish more.

And the puttering time can still add value to the things that can be accomplished with puttering.

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A good friend of mine's daughter did her movie debut in a Jennifer Anniston movie  - Life of Crime.  I am looking forward to watching it.

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And a quote for the day:

Some people see things that are and ask, Why? Some people dream of things that never were and ask, Why not? Some people have to go to work and don't have time for all that.

George Carlin

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I am thinking I need to do a songbook.  Just like IBM did in 1937.  Check it out.

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To provoke thought, there is a good article in the Atlantic on the new editors of the internet.

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The grandkids - Victoria and Josh.  Puttering or perfect practice?  Or perhaps just enjoying being.

Leading Surveys and the Power of Asking the Right Questions

When we ask questions - we get answers.

This is why I like the How question.  Often when you ask why - you come up with reasons and excuses for why something happens or is not happening.  Why are sales down this year?  Competition is higher and we lost XYZ account.  And of course the exchange rate.

I think of things we cannot change as "conditions".  My exCOO used that all the time.  Conditions are simply things which are.  And anything that needs to be done needs doing "in spite of the condition".

But ask the How question.  How can we increase sales.  We can market more, we can sell other products, we can approach ABC customer etc.  How questions inspire action.

Good leading questions get even better answers - eg being highly specific.  How can we increase sales by 12% by December?

This is why my modification of the 5 Why's is to add the How.

So how can this be used in surveys?

Ask - what are the 3 things you like about us?  Do you buy from us because our prices are competitive or because our service is great?  Do you mostly buy from us because we sell ABC product or XYZ product?  (so the customer says "I did not know you sold XYZ).  As a customer, what is most important to you about us - that we sell more ABC than all other companies combined or because we ship faster than other companies?

The more customers say good things about you - even in a survey, the better they think of you.

Don't ask what is wrong with us?  (that will always come out - especially if you have a section for "any other comments")

Surveys can be a great marketing tool and can help reinforce things in your customers' or prospects' mind.  They can also educate your customer.

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Texting and driving.  Good video to share with all.  Watch it through to the point where they show how long 5 seconds is.

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And Victoria taking me for a walk.

The Goal - Reducing Stuff Quotient

I recently moved from a large home in Long Island to large home in Guelph - but a home that is half the size.    So now, everything is a mess with too much stuff.  So I am committed to a negative Stuff Quotient.  I commit to get rid of more stuff than I bring into the house every day.  And to add to it, I would like to get rid of one more thing per day - this will add up to 1000 less things in 3 years which might put the house into an equilibrium.

Stuff has a great cost - the worst of which is stress - usually caused by time.  Stuff takes time.  Time spent on stuff can far outweigh the value of the stuff.

Storage costs.  Many people spend thousands of dollars storing hundreds of dollars of stuff.

Stuff has no value if it cannot be found easily.   And storing it a retrieving it takes time.  Good organization systems help of course but there is a time factor to set those up.

And most Stuff degrades or has obsolescence as it is stored.  EG - I just threw out an awesome maglight because the batteries had corroded.  And then in looking at flashlights, I realize it was obsolete anyways.  New ones are LED - better light and longer life.

Part of what makes it difficult to get rid of stuff is frugality.  I hate waste.  To help this feeling, I give things to friends (is this mean?), or goodwill/Salvation Army.  But some things just need to be tossed.

Stuff can be security but it can also be stress.

Consider making the Negative Stuff Quotient Pledge.

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I thought this was a very interesting KPMG report on the tax efficiency of various jurisdictions.  Canada and Ontario rank very well.  Especially for tech companies using SRED credits.  See report.

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A friend emailed me an online miniseries his brother is directing.  The phenomenon of anyone being able to be a producer/director is interesting.  This is just like blogging allows anyone to own a publisher.  Media empires have been broken.

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And a plug for one of my investee companies:

LaunchSpot is a solution that:

1. Enables people in your organization to save time by making it really easy to find expertise wherever it is across your company’s network - in both critical situations and in normal daily work.

2. Enables your people to setup a profile in seconds because we use existing information to pre-populate profiles.  The on-boarding process is very simple and fast.

3. Helps you gain insight into your organization (skills breakdown across the organization, etc.)

4. Enables you to integrate with other systems via our API.

Why:

Information is available now more than ever but information is only useful when applied with the needs of your current context.  A google search alone can not provide that context but the people in your organization with expertise can.  We believe that information alone does not contain the answers, people do and to that end we make it easier for your people to find the expertise in your organization.

ROI:

The average knowledge worker spends 20% of their time looking for answers to do their jobs. Help each of your people turn those hours into minutes.

http://LaunchSpot.io